RooFork Insights

The median U.S. home price hit a record $434,100 in July — its 37th consecutive year-over-year gain — while housing starts fell 12.4% to a 1.239 million annual pace, their second-lowest reading of 2026, as a new 50% tariff on Canadian building materials and elevated rates made new construction harder to pencil. San Francisco's two-bedroom rent crossed $6,020, the first time any U.S. city has breached that mark, lifted by AI hiring that drove 144 homes to sell $1 million or more over asking in a single half-year — yet bank-owned homes moved at a 27.5% discount to comparable listings, the widest REO bargain in over two decades. Insurance nonrenewal rates in Western states jumped 216% since 2018, turning the annual premium into a rival to the mortgage payment for 62% of Western homeowners, even as buyer sentiment flipped for the first time since 2023: 53% of Americans now say buying beats renting.

• $434,100 record price — The median existing-home price rose 2.0% in July to a new all-time record, marking 37 consecutive months of year-over-year gains even as sales fell 1.7% and inventory held at 4.6 months' supply; a buyer waiting for falling sales to translate into cheaper prices is watching the wrong number — price growth won't crack until supply actually moves. source
• −12.4% starts — U.S. housing starts fell 12.4% in July to a 1.239 million annual rate, the second-lowest reading of 2026, with single-family starts down 9.9% to 808,000 — their slowest pace since 2022 — as a new 50% tariff on Canadian cement, plywood, and furniture and elevated rates made new construction harder to pencil; single-family building permits rose 2.5% the same month to 894,000, signaling builders are parking approvals rather than abandoning projects. source
• $6,020 San Francisco rent — The median two-bedroom rent in San Francisco hit a record $6,020 in July, up 25.9% year over year and for the first time higher than any other major U.S. city — $570 above New York's — as AI hiring pulled well-paid tech workers into a handful of neighborhoods faster than landlords could list, with 144 SF homes selling $1 million or more over asking in the first half of 2026, versus just 8 a year earlier. source
• 27.5% REO discount — Bank-owned homes sold at a 27.5% discount to comparable listings in June, the widest gap in over two decades, concentrated in Florida, Texas, California, and the Mountain West — even as the same ICE report shows annual home-price growth hit a 14-month high of 1.5% in July; a buyer willing to underwrite a foreclosure is finding real bargains in the same markets where everything else sells near record prices. source
• 216% nonrenewal surge — Homeowners-policy nonrenewal rates jumped 216% in Western states since 2018, more than double the Southeast's 96% rise, with real premiums in the West up 43% — the steepest of any region; 44% of all U.S. homeowners say their insurance premium now rivals their mortgage payment, a share that climbs to 62% among Western homeowners. source
• 53% say buying beats renting — For the first time since 2023, more Americans favor buying over renting or moving in with family, 53% versus 47%, per Bank of America's 2026 Homebuyer Insights survey — even as the same respondents cited record-high prices (58%) and rates (47%) as their top barriers; mortgage credit availability also hit its highest level since 2022 that same week, with the jumbo component at its highest point since 2020. source
• 7.2% multifamily vacancy — The national apartment vacancy rate fell to 7.2% in July, its first decline since late 2021, as builders slow deliveries sharply from recent years; Apartment List's national median rent rose 0.2% to $1,388 for a sixth straight monthly increase — still down 1.1% year over year, but the floor-forming trend is now visible in both vacancy and monthly rent direction. source

Retail sales fell 0.6% in July — the steepest monthly drop in 14 months — sending the odds of a September Fed rate hike from roughly 50% to 30.6% and giving the 30-year mortgage rate its clearest opening to ease since the early-July jobs miss. Pending home sales fell to 72.5, a five-month low, as buyers stayed frozen near the 6.82% daily rate peak — yet mortgage applications surged 3.6% the moment the 30-year dipped just four basis points, proving buyers are queued for any relief, not waiting for a full point. Institutional landlords relisted 9,447 single-family rentals in July, more than double February's pace, while serious mortgage delinquency transitions climbed to 1.52%, the first sustained distress signal of the rate-lock era.

• 30.6% Fed hike odds — The probability of a September Fed rate hike fell from roughly 50% to 30.6% after July retail sales came in at −0.6%, the steepest monthly drop in 14 months; back-to-back soft data — Tuesday's in-line CPI at 3.4%/2.5% and Friday's retail miss — gave mortgage rates their clearest opening to ease since the early-July jobs report, cutting the case for the hike that had pushed the 30-year past 6.80%. source
• 9,447 vs. 4,166 — Institutional landlords with 350+ homes listed 9,447 single-family rentals for sale in July, more than double February's 4,166, net-selling 3,180 more homes than they bought since January; the retreat is structural, not cyclical — repositioning ahead of a January 2027 federal ban on large-investor purchases while small investors (3–9 homes) now make up the largest share of the buyer pool. source
• 72.5 pending home sales — NAR's index hit its lowest reading since January after pending sales fell 3.7% week-over-week through August 2, the steepest weekly drop since 2022, as the daily 30-year rate touched 6.82%; a buyer still actively writing offers in that window faced less national competition than at any point since winter. source
• 3.6% mortgage app surge — Applications jumped 3.6% week-over-week after the 30-year fixed rate eased just four basis points to 6.77% — the strongest weekly gain since spring, with refinances up 5% and purchases up 3% — proof that buyers are sensitive to rate moves in the single digits, not waiting on a full percentage point of relief before coming off the sidelines. source
• 1.52% serious delinquency — The share of mortgage balances transitioning into serious delinquency climbed to 1.52% in Q2, up from 1.29% a year earlier, the first sustained uptick since the rate-lock era began; at the same time, HELOC balances hit a post-2022 high of $459 billion — suggesting a growing slice of owners are stretching equity lines rather than selling a low-rate mortgage they can no longer easily service. source
• 40 years old — The median age of a first-time homebuyer hit an all-time high of 40 this year, up from 28 in 1991, as first-timers' share of all purchases fell to a record-low 21%; the income required to afford the median-priced home has nearly doubled from $66,000 in 2020 to roughly $120,000, meaning the entry-level buyer as a life stage now arrives a decade later than a generation ago. source
• $432,000 Florida record — Florida's statewide median price for existing single-family homes hit a record $432,000 in June, up 4.9% year over year, with closed sales up 9.3% and its 10th consecutive month of year-over-year sales growth — the starkest contrast to the national pending-sales slump, with the market that typically leads Sun Belt cooldowns now leading gains instead. source

July's nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 — the second negative print of 2026, missing the 83,000 consensus by more than 100,000 — while jobless claims held below 200,000 for a third straight week, the calmest hiring-freeze-without-layoffs dynamic since 1969, and the Fed's September hike odds swung from 55% to 44% in a single day. Apartment vacancy fell for the first time since 2021 as deliveries head from 695,000 units in 2024 toward just 382,000 this year, tipping one-bedroom rents positive year-over-year for the first time since May 2025. Pending home sales posted their worst weekly drop since 2022 as the 30-year rate hit a one-year high of 6.81%, even as the median sale price reached a record $406,362 — and 51% of mortgaged homeowners say they won't sell until rates fall back under 5%.

• -23,000 payrolls — Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July, the second negative print of 2026 and more than 100,000 below the 83,000 consensus forecast, sending the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.74% — its lowest since July 20 — as CME FedWatch's September Fed-hike odds collapsed from 55% to 44.1% in a single day; yet weekly jobless claims held under 200,000 for a third straight week, the longest such streak since 1969, meaning companies froze hiring without firing. source
• 1 in 373 — Florida posted the nation's worst state foreclosure rate in the first half of 2026, with filings hitting 0.27% of housing units — one in every 373 homes versus one in 632 nationally — as insurance premiums, HOA special assessments from post-Surfside condo mandates, and property taxes stacked on top of the mortgage, driving defaults even where home values held; Jacksonville led major metros at 0.31%. source
• 7.2% vacancy — The national apartment vacancy rate fell to 7.2% in July, its first decline since late 2021, as builders are on pace to deliver just 382,000 new apartments this year versus 695,000 in 2024; one-bedroom rents turned positive year-over-year for the first time since May 2025 at $1,526 nationally, while Austin's one-bedroom rent remained down 16.4% year-over-year — the steepest drop of any major U.S. metro. source
• -3.7% pending sales — Pending home sales fell 3.7% week-over-week through August 2, the steepest weekly drop since 2022 and their lowest level in over five months, as the 30-year fixed rate hit 6.69% — a one-year high — even as the national median sale price set a record at $406,362, up 2.9% year-over-year; buyers who paused waiting for prices and rates to move together watched only the wrong one give ground. source
• $23,400 down payment — The typical U.S. down payment hit a four-year low of $23,400 in Q1 2026, down 19% year-over-year and 28% from the 2024 peak of $32,700, meaning the cash-to-close bar is falling even as the 30-year rate climbed to a one-year high — the affordability bottleneck has shifted from the down payment to the monthly payment. source
• 51% won't sell under 5% — A survey of mortgaged homeowners found 51% say they won't sell until the 30-year fixed rate falls below 5%, and 35% of those already holding rates below 6% say they'd never give up their rate under any circumstances — locking out resale supply at a moment when no major forecaster has a sub-5% rate on any visible horizon. source
• 37% of builders cutting prices — NAHB's July survey found 37% of builders reducing prices at an average 6% cut, up from 35% in June and 32% in May, as confidence logged its 15th straight month below the neutral-50 mark — the longest sustained slump since 2012 — while resale sellers haven't followed: the median existing-home price reached $440,600, its 36th consecutive annual-gain month. source

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.85% — its highest in over a year — as Middle East oil shocks drove the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.23%, its highest since 2007, and markets priced an 81% chance of a September Fed hike, up from roughly 10% in early July. Pending home sales sank to 72.5, their lowest reading since January, while Case-Shiller showed nominal prices up just 1.1% in May but real home values falling for a 12th straight month against 4.2% inflation. Underlying credit stayed healthy: FHA mortgage defaults fell 15% year-over-year — the largest annual drop in four-plus years — and first-half foreclosure filings reflect an old backlog clearing fast, not fresh stress.

• 6.85% — The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.85%, its highest in over a year, as Iran-linked oil shocks drove the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.23% — its highest since 2007 — and CME FedWatch priced an 81% chance of a September Fed hike, up from roughly 10% in early July; the Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, but three of twelve voting members dissented in favor of a hike anyway, and mortgage rates moved on the bond market, not the vote. source
• 227,548 — First-half 2026 saw 227,548 foreclosure filings, up 21% year-over-year and 28% from two years ago, as REO completions jumped 33% and average timelines fell to their shortest since 2013; ICE simultaneously reported new FHA defaults down 15% — the largest annual drop in more than four years — meaning the six-year-high foreclosure rate reflects an old backlog draining fast, not fresh defaults piling up. source
• 12 — Case-Shiller's national home price index rose 1.1% year-over-year in May, but with inflation running 4.2%, real home values fell for a 12th consecutive month; a nearly 9-point regional spread put Chicago at the top (+6.9%) while Las Vegas was the only major metro losing value outright, down 1.9% — the national headline hid the widest city-to-city gap this cycle. source
• 72.5 — NAR's Pending Home Sales Index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, its lowest reading since January, with declines in every region; the same week, the national median asking price fell to a one-year low and the estimated monthly mortgage payment dropped to a three-month low of $2,575 — sellers cut asking prices first as demand slowed. source
• +1.5% GDP — U.S. economic growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1 and below forecasts, while core PCE held at 3.3%; within that report, residential fixed investment rose 1.5% — its first positive contribution to GDP since Q4 2024 — with single-family investment up 4.4%, signaling builders leaned back in even as the broader economy decelerated. source
• 27.7% — Institutional investors' share of single-family purchases fell to 27.7% in Q1 2026, down from 30.1% in December, as the largest buyers cut weekly purchases from roughly 250 to 100 homes — the sharpest institutional pullback since iBuyers exited the market in 2022 — giving entry-level buyers less bulk-investor competition than at any recent point. source
• −5.4% starters, +6.2% luxury — Zillow's data showed starter-home sales falling 5.4% year-over-year in May while luxury sales rose 6.2%; starter inventory grew 4.5% and 25% of starter listings carried price cuts versus 20.6% of luxury ones — the same week first-time buyers claimed 33% of June existing-home sales, up from 30% a year earlier, their highest share in the current rate environment. source

The median existing-home price hit a record $440,600 in June — the 36th straight month of annual gains — even as builders cut new-home prices to a one-year low of $398,300 against 9.3 months of unsold inventory. An oil-driven spike pushed the 30-year mortgage rate to 6.85%, its highest since June 2025, while national rent turned positive year-over-year for the first time in 13 months as multifamily starts collapsed to their lowest quarterly pace since 2011. Florida sharpened as the week's starkest fault line: net domestic migration fell 93% from its 2022 peak to just 22,500 people, and the state posted the nation's worst first-half foreclosure rate — up 33% year over year.

• $440,600 — The median existing-home price hit a new all-time record in June, the 36th consecutive month of annual price gains, even as sales fell 2.4% from May to a 4.09 million annualized pace and inventory sat at a lean 4.6 months of supply — prices keep climbing not from surging demand but from sellers who won't discount against thin inventory. source
• $398,300 — The median new-home sale price fell to its lowest level in a year in June even as builder sales rose only 1.6% from May and remained 5.6% below last June's pace; completed, unsold new homes now sit at 9.3 months of supply — giving buyers in Sunbelt metros the strongest negotiating position against builders since mid-2025. source
• 22,500 — Florida's net domestic in-migration fell to roughly 22,500 people in 2025 — down about 93% from the 2022 peak of 310,000 — its steepest collapse since the pandemic boom began, driven by insurance and property-tax costs pricing out middle-class movers and a national immigration slowdown cutting international arrivals; Miami-Dade alone lost nearly 73,000 more residents to other states than it gained. source
• 55,000 units — U.S. multifamily construction starts fell to just 55,000 units in the first quarter of 2026, the lowest quarterly pace since 2011 and down 73% from the 2022 peak, draining the supply glut that had kept rents flat; the same week national one-bedroom rent turned positive year-over-year for the first time since May 2025, rising 0.4% — signaling the rental market's landlord-friendly shift is underway. source
• 6.85% — The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.85% Thursday, its highest since June 2025, after Houthi strikes on Saudi oil tankers pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel and drove the 10-year Treasury toward levels pricing a 38% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting — up from just 12% one week earlier. source
• 1 in 373 — Florida posted the nation's worst foreclosure rate in the first half of 2026 with 27,494 filings — one for every 373 housing units, up 33% year over year — led by Punta Gorda (0.50%), Lakeland and Cape Coral; buyers shopping those metros should verify a property's foreclosure status before writing any offer. source
• +88% revenue, −20% occupancy — Kansas City short-term-rental hosts earned about $12 million more this June than last — an 88% revenue jump — even as occupancy fell nearly 20%, the worst drop of any 2026 World Cup host city, because new listings flooded in 80% faster than demand grew and hosts more than doubled nightly rates from $191 to $316; price, not a fuller calendar, did all the work. source

Mortgage rates spiked to 6.75% — their highest since July 2025 — after an Iran oil shock lifted bond yields and sent pending home sales 5.4% lower in June. Builder confidence logged its 15th straight month below neutral, the longest stretch since 2012, while June's headline 19% surge in housing starts was entirely apartments: single-family permits actually fell 2.4%, leaving the for-sale supply crunch intact. Cotality now labels 72% of the 100 largest metros overvalued yet still forecasts prices rising 4.8% — a split reflecting the widening gap between Florida's historic listing glut and San Francisco's 22% rent surge.

• 6.75% — The 30-year fixed rate hit its highest level since July 2025 after an Iran oil shock pushed the 10-year Treasury higher; rates briefly eased to 6.70% the next day on a cooler-than-expected June CPI print, but the 30-year hasn't dipped below 6.52% in two months regardless of domestic data. source
• 34 — Builder confidence held at 34 in July, the 15th straight month below the neutral 50 mark and the longest sustained slump since 2012; incentives are now included in 63% of new-home sales for the 16th consecutive month above that level, with the South (33) and West (26) dragging sentiment down twice as hard as the Northeast (45) and Midwest (45). source
• +19% starts, −2.4% single-family permits — June housing starts surged 19% to a 1.427 million annualized pace, but the entire gain was apartments: multifamily jumped 76% to 513,000 while single-family starts held flat at 895,000, and single-family permits fell 2.4% to 871,000 — pointing to continued for-sale scarcity ahead. source
• −5.4% — NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 5.4% in June from May, with declines in every region and a 0.3% miss versus a year ago — the same week mortgage rates were hitting multi-month highs and purchase applications dropped 7%. source
• 13.6% of U.S. listings, 44.9% with price cuts — Florida now holds 13.6% of all active U.S. home listings on just 8% of the nation's housing stock; 44.9% of those listings have taken a price cut — 6.6 points above the national average — and 10.3% are priced below what the owner originally paid, handing buyers the strongest negotiating position in the country. source
• $4,060 — San Francisco's median one-bedroom rent hit a record $4,060 in June, up 21.9% year-over-year — the largest annual jump Zumper has recorded in any major U.S. city — as AI-driven office leasing pulls workers back and CBRE logs office vacancy down five points in a year. source
• 72% overvalued, +4.8% forecast — Cotality's July index labels 72% of the 100 largest U.S. metros as overvalued by more than 10% above long-run value, yet the same report forecasts home prices rising 4.8% over the next 12 months — roughly six times May's 0.8% pace — led by San Francisco (+8.9% YoY, with 7.6 of those points added in just the last 90 days) and Chicago (+6.2%). source

The median U.S. home-sale price set an all-time record at $440,600 in June even as existing-home sales fell 2.4% — a divergence that may not last. A geopolitical shock briefly pushed the 30-year fixed rate to a 10-month high of 6.68% before a partial recovery, while regional splits widened to their starkest yet: Cape Coral condos have erased 20 years of gains, Northeast bidding wars still see 57% of homes sell above asking, and first-time buyers claimed a record-low 21% of purchases at a record-high median age of 40.

• $440,600 — The U.S. median existing-home sale price hit an all-time record in June, up 1.8% year over year and the 36th straight month of annual gains, even as the number of closings fell 2.4% to a 4.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate and inventory held at just 4.6 months. source
• 6.68% — The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked to its highest level in more than 10 months after President Trump declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire over on July 8, sending the 10-year Treasury yield from 3.97% to 4.58%; rates gave back more than half the move, easing to 6.54% by July 11. source
• −32% — Cape Coral condo prices have fallen 32% from their peak and are now below their October 2005 level, erasing two decades of gains, as Florida's post-Surfside reserve-funding mandate triggered five- and six-figure special assessments; statewide condo prices are falling in 92% of Florida markets while single-family homes barely move. source
• 57.6% vs. 6.6% — In Newark, NJ, 57.6% of homes sold above list price in May — the highest share among the 50 largest metros — while West Palm Beach managed just 6.6% and Miami 7.4%; nationally, sellers outnumbered buyers by 46.9%, one of the widest gaps on record. source
• 21% — First-time buyers fell to a record-low 21% share of home purchases in NAR's latest annual survey, with the typical first-time buyer's age climbing to a record 40, as the affordability index now requires roughly $120,000 in household income to afford the median-priced home — up from $66,000 in 2020. source
• +0.4% — National median one-bedroom rents turned positive year-over-year in June for the first time since May 2025, rising to $1,526, as multifamily starts collapsed to roughly 80,000 units in Q1 — down 27% year-over-year and the lowest quarterly total since 2017 — draining the oversupply that had kept rents flat. source
• 26% — 77 of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets (26%) posted year-over-year price declines through May, led by Punta Gorda, FL (-7.9%), Cape Coral, FL (-6.1%) and Austin, TX (-5.7%), while since the June 2022 peak, asking prices in the West have fallen 7.3% versus a 12.6% gain in the Northeast. source

Median home-sale prices reached an all-time record $408,838 even as housing starts collapsed to their lowest since May 2020. List prices fell 2.5% year over year — the biggest annual drop since 2017 — yet demand is rebounding: pending sales rose 3.7% for their seventh straight monthly gain. June's weak 57,000-job payroll reading is now the main wild card for second-half mortgage rates.

• $408,838 — The median U.S. home-sale price hit a new all-time record for the four weeks ending June 28, up 2.5% year over year; monthly housing payments rose year over year for the first time in eight months. source
• −2.5% — National median list prices fell to $430,000 in June, down 2.5% year over year — the eighth straight annual decline and the largest since 2017 — while pending sales rose 3.7% for their seventh consecutive monthly gain. source
• 57,000 — June added only 57,000 jobs, half the 115,000 consensus forecast; Treasury yields fell and bets on a near-term rate hike evaporated, pointing to a potential mortgage-rate tailwind heading into July. source
• 1.177 million — U.S. housing starts fell 15.4% in May to a 1.177-million annualized rate, the lowest since May 2020, driven by multifamily crashing from 400,000+ in early 2024 to just 284,000. source
• +0.8% — National home prices rose just 0.8% year over year in April (Case-Shiller), meaning real values fell for the 11th straight month after accounting for 3.8% inflation — flat on paper, quietly cheaper after inflation. source
• 35.9% — The combined Canadian softwood lumber tariff is projected to reach 35.9% in August; NAHB estimates current levies already add roughly $10,900 to the cost of a typical new single-family home. source
• +6.5% — Short-term rental occupancy for the July 4th weekend ran 6.5% above 2025 levels, with the Mid-Atlantic up 26.2% in RevPAR and bookings placed 14.7% further in advance — demand is absorbing the oversupply that pressured STR investors in 2024–2025. source

CBRE's Q2 2025 affordability study found median monthly ownership costs hit $4,643 versus $2,228 for rent, leaving just 12.7% of renters able to purchase today.

National net absorption outpaced new supply in almost every metro during Q2 2025 as average rents ticked up 1.2% year-over-year and vacancy retreated.

Industrial still leads but retail captured a larger share of the $46.7B closed through Q2 2025, with cap rates holding near 7.0% amid expectations for Fed cuts.